Analysis of climate anomalies for La Villa river basin, Panama, based on RCP scenarios

The use of climate change projections is crucial for mitigation and adaptation, which are the basis for creating resilience. However, access to these scientific products is scarce in Latin America and the existing studies lack of an appropriate resolution to analyze small but highly vulnerable regio...

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Autores principales:	García, Karina, Del Castillo, Luis, Saavedra, Casilda
Formato:	Online
Idioma:	spa
Publicado:	Universidad Tecnológica de Panamá, Panamá 2020
Acceso en línea:	https://revistas.utp.ac.pa/index.php/id-tecnologico/article/view/2444

id	IDTEC2444
record_format	ojs
spelling	IDTEC24442022-07-26T22:36:16Z Análisis de anomalías climáticas para la cuenca del río La Villa, Panamá, basado en los escenarios RCP Analysis of climate anomalies for La Villa river basin, Panama, based on RCP scenarios García, Karina Del Castillo, Luis Saavedra, Casilda El uso de proyecciones es indispensable en los procesos de mitigación y adaptación al cambio climático, los cuales son la base para crear resiliencia. Sin embargo, el acceso a estos productos científicos es escaso en Latinoamérica. Por otro lado, los estudios existentes carecen de una resolución apropiada para analizar regiones pequeñas, pero de alta vulnerabilidad climática, como lo son las cuencas hidrográficas. Este caso de estudio se enfoca en la cuenca del río La Villa, ubicada en el arco seco de Panamá, la cual es considerada una de las cuencas de mayor prioridad para la adaptación al cambio climático de Panamá.  Se realizaron proyecciones de cuatro modelos climáticos sometidos a reducción de escala.  Estos utilizan como base las Trayectorias de Concentración Representativas (RCP), presentados en el Quinto Informe de Evaluación del Panel Intergubernamental de Expertos sobre Cambio Climático (IPCC). La diferencia entre las condiciones climáticas actuales y las proyectadas por los modelos, conocidas como anomalías climáticas, arrojaron que para los años 2050 y 2070, la precipitación en la zona aumentará en promedio anual.  Por su parte, las temperaturas máximas y mínimas incrementarán en promedio de 1-2 °C, y cerca de los 4°C hacia el final del siglo XXI. Con estos resultados observamos que el uso de proyecciones climáticas reducidas a menor escala en los escenarios RCP, es viable para determinar los efectos del cambio climático sobre regiones pequeñas. The use of climate change projections is crucial for mitigation and adaptation, which are the basis for creating resilience. However, access to these scientific products is scarce in Latin America and the existing studies lack of an appropriate resolution to analyze small but highly vulnerable regions, such as river basins for planning purposes.   La Villa river basin, Republic of Panama, is one of the watersheds of highest priority for adaptation to climate change. This study used downscaled projections from four climate models. The models are based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), presented in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-IPCC. Results of this study suggest increases of the annual average precipitation in the watershed for the years 2050 and 2070. Meanwhile, maximum and minimum temperatures will increase an average of 1-2 ° C and near 4 ° C by the end of the 21st century. With these results, we observed that the use of small-scale climate projections in the RCP scenarios is feasible to determine the effects of climate change on small regions. Universidad Tecnológica de Panamá, Panamá 2020-01-28 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion application/pdf text/html https://revistas.utp.ac.pa/index.php/id-tecnologico/article/view/2444 10.33412/idt.v16.1.2444 I+D Tecnológico; Vol. 16 Núm. 1 (2020): Revista de I+D Tecnológico; 83-89 2219-6714 1680-8894 spa https://revistas.utp.ac.pa/index.php/id-tecnologico/article/view/2444/3270 https://revistas.utp.ac.pa/index.php/id-tecnologico/article/view/2444/3527 Derechos de autor 2020 Creative Commons Reconocimiento-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 4.0. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0
institution	Universidad Tecnológica de Panamá
collection	I+D Tecnológico
language	spa
format	Online
author	García, Karina Del Castillo, Luis Saavedra, Casilda
spellingShingle	García, Karina Del Castillo, Luis Saavedra, Casilda Analysis of climate anomalies for La Villa river basin, Panama, based on RCP scenarios
author_facet	García, Karina Del Castillo, Luis Saavedra, Casilda
author_sort	García, Karina
description	The use of climate change projections is crucial for mitigation and adaptation, which are the basis for creating resilience. However, access to these scientific products is scarce in Latin America and the existing studies lack of an appropriate resolution to analyze small but highly vulnerable regions, such as river basins for planning purposes.   La Villa river basin, Republic of Panama, is one of the watersheds of highest priority for adaptation to climate change. This study used downscaled projections from four climate models. The models are based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), presented in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-IPCC. Results of this study suggest increases of the annual average precipitation in the watershed for the years 2050 and 2070. Meanwhile, maximum and minimum temperatures will increase an average of 1-2 ° C and near 4 ° C by the end of the 21st century. With these results, we observed that the use of small-scale climate projections in the RCP scenarios is feasible to determine the effects of climate change on small regions.
title	Analysis of climate anomalies for La Villa river basin, Panama, based on RCP scenarios
title_short	Analysis of climate anomalies for La Villa river basin, Panama, based on RCP scenarios
title_full	Analysis of climate anomalies for La Villa river basin, Panama, based on RCP scenarios
title_fullStr	Analysis of climate anomalies for La Villa river basin, Panama, based on RCP scenarios
title_full_unstemmed	Analysis of climate anomalies for La Villa river basin, Panama, based on RCP scenarios
title_sort	analysis of climate anomalies for la villa river basin, panama, based on rcp scenarios
title_alt	Análisis de anomalías climáticas para la cuenca del río La Villa, Panamá, basado en los escenarios RCP
publisher	Universidad Tecnológica de Panamá, Panamá
publishDate	2020
url	https://revistas.utp.ac.pa/index.php/id-tecnologico/article/view/2444
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_version_	1811817975260381184

Analysis of climate anomalies for La Villa river basin, Panama, based on RCP scenarios

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